Reading Between the Lines: Understanding Polling Subgroups

Polling is not merely tabulating the opinions of people; it requires depth into how different subgroups within a population think and behave. Subgroup polling-by age, race, income level, education-reveals nuances not reflected in topline results. Sometimes reading between the lines of these subgroups gives a better picture of election dynamics or trends in public opinion.

Take for instance the 2020 U.S. presidential election. John Zogby, founder of the independent polling and opinion survey company John Zogby Strategies, noted, “While most polls reflected a very close competition between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the subgroup analysis told many stories of dissimilarities in key demographics. White, non-college-educated voters were leaning highly toward Trump, while younger and minority citizens supported Biden in greater amounts. If these subgroup divisions were ignored, the result might not be indicative of the real view of the voters.”

Subgroups can also reflect trends that are coming. Non-traditional groupings, like weekly Wal-Mart shoppers and NASCAR fans have been identified as influential representatives of political trends for several elections now. Individuals like the well-known pollster John Zogby go beyond the lines of traditional demographics to build new groupings.

However, one must be very cautious when interpreting subgroups. Smaller sample sizes equate to less reliable data, and sometimes subgroup trends do not necessarily reflect a general pattern. One has to balance insights gained from subgroups with the overall picture while understanding how particular factors such as geography or socioeconomic status shape voting behavior.

Subgroup analysis is where the interesting aspects of public opinion might be better grasped by a reader, providing further depth into results rather than a superficial overview.